Type: Flight Data
Source: Aviation Records
The 2013 Aguadilla UAP Incident involved infrared footage captured by a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) aircraft on April 25, 2013, which has been analyzed using both radar and flight data by different groups with conflicting conclusions.
SCU Analysis (Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies)
Radar Data: The SCU obtained FAA radar data via the USAF 84th Radar Evaluation Squadron (RADES) to corroborate the video’s authenticity and the tracking aircraft’s location.
Flight Characteristics: Their analysis estimated the object traveled at speeds approaching 100 mph (with some independent claims of 1200 mph) through urban and coastal areas, entered the water with minimal splash, and appeared to split into two objects.
Conclusion: They concluded the object exhibited anomalous behavior inconsistent with known technology or conventional explanations like balloons.
AARO Resolution (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office)
Flight Path Reconstruction: Using Systems Toolkit (STK) and full sensor models, AARO reconstructed the flight path, concluding the objects were drifting at approximately 8 mph, consistent with surface winds.
Radar Usage: AARO did not rely on external FAA radar tracks for object motion, instead treating the thermal video geometry as sufficient to resolve speed and altitude.
Conclusion: AARO determined the footage showed two separate objects (attributed to sky lanterns) whose apparent high speed and "splitting" were optical illusions caused by motion parallax and changing viewing angles, with no trans-medium water entry.